Global Warming - Part 2

A lot of the "proof" of global warming comes from computer models. And this is because since the late 1960s there has been an abundance of weather satellite data available for computers to crunch. Prior to that data was in the form of paper records and techniques such as ice core sampling.

I have a couple of problems with the Global Warming Gang and their data. First their models are proprietary and are not available for inspection. Second they will not let the scientific community look at their raw data. Only their "enhanced" data is available for viewing.

So let's look at computer modeling in general. Do you ever watch the weather channel? If you live in San Diego they are right pretty much most of the time because the weather doesn't vary much from day to day and they can easily track storms coming in from the Pacific. Here in the Midwest weather comes from four or five directions, often all at once. We get winds and rain from the West and the Northwest, arctic cold from the north and warm moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is why we have so many thunderstorms and tornados. But when we watch the weather channel here we know the forecast is really only valid for a day, maybe two. The first Saturday of October (2010) we were supposed to get a half inch of rain. We got six inches of snow. An interesting thing about the weather channel is from time to time they do not trust their computer model so they compare it with a European model. Now why are computer weather models so finicky? It's because of the complexity needed. There are tremendous amounts of variables involved.

First a little background. In mathematics there is a problem called the 100 cities salesman problem where you have to figure out the shortest route to cover 100 cities. Sounds simple, except it isn't. There are 100! (one hundred factorial) possible choices. 100! = 9.332622x10^157. To put that number into perspective the number of particles (including subatomic particles) in the universe (all galaxies known) is postulated to be around 10^88. In theory it would take a Cray Super computer over 300 years to solve the 100 cities salesman problem.

How many variables does a weather forecasting model have? I don't know. How many variables does the global warming forecasting model have? I don't know and few others do because the Global Warming Gang will not tell us. Remember the weather forecasting model's accuracy falls off sharply after 24 hours. How can the Global Warming Gang forecast 50 years into the future? And because the data they make available for inspection is "enhanced" (normalized to fit their predictions) we cannot run it thru our models to test the veracity of their predictions.

Don't piss on my back and tell me it is raining.