I went to the dump, correction recycling center, Monday to dump, correction recycle, some of the jungle I hacked out of my backyard and as I was unloading this older dude backs his truck up jumps out and yells to me:
Geezer: Hey did you hear about Obama's 30 point plan?
Meezer: (Thinking this was the start of a joke) Ah, no... I'm listening.
Geezer: Well I got this 2 hours email that tells of Obama going to Europe to meet with the Bilderberg group and they are going to destroy all U.S. banks and take over our country and nobody will even notice and not only that Obama has lied to us about the true debt which is over 100 trillion dollars and he promised the first thing he would do when he became president would be to bring back the troops from Iraq and Afghanistan and he is going to let Al Qaida set off a nucklyer bomb in America and blame it on Isreal and we are going to have Socialism, Fascism, Communism in American until we have to turn it over to the Chinese because that's the only country who will sell products to Walmart and the Liberal Media knows this because they are getting drugs thru Panama which now owned by China and our troops are almost all homosexual and I know this is all true because I got a 2 hour email because you can't trust the politicians or the media bla bla bla.
WHEW! I knew better that dispute any of his 'facts'. But why I am writing this is I've notice more and more people like this. People (both left and right) who's heads are so full of lies that they can no longer think straight. This guy was a classic example but I recall right after the presidential election in Nov 08 a woman telling me with a straight face that Obama has wrecked the economy with his policies. I pointed out that Obama wouldn't be president until next January and if the economy was being wrecked the only person she could blame would be Bush.
My wife tells me of the rampant complacency among high school students. These kids are ripe for slavery. Their heads have turned to mush by video games and TV. The can read words but not determine what is being said. They will never see it coming.
If I were a Catholic I'd light a candle for America.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Global Warming - Part 2
A lot of the "proof" of global warming comes from computer models. And this is because since the late 1960s there has been an abundance of weather satellite data available for computers to crunch. Prior to that data was in the form of paper records and techniques such as ice core sampling.
I have a couple of problems with the Global Warming Gang and their data. First their models are proprietary and are not available for inspection. Second they will not let the scientific community look at their raw data. Only their "enhanced" data is available for viewing.
So let's look at computer modeling in general. Do you ever watch the weather channel? If you live in San Diego they are right pretty much most of the time because the weather doesn't vary much from day to day and they can easily track storms coming in from the Pacific. Here in the Midwest weather comes from four or five directions, often all at once. We get winds and rain from the West and the Northwest, arctic cold from the north and warm moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is why we have so many thunderstorms and tornados. But when we watch the weather channel here we know the forecast is really only valid for a day, maybe two. The first Saturday of October (2010) we were supposed to get a half inch of rain. We got six inches of snow. An interesting thing about the weather channel is from time to time they do not trust their computer model so they compare it with a European model. Now why are computer weather models so finicky? It's because of the complexity needed. There are tremendous amounts of variables involved.
First a little background. In mathematics there is a problem called the 100 cities salesman problem where you have to figure out the shortest route to cover 100 cities. Sounds simple, except it isn't. There are 100! (one hundred factorial) possible choices. 100! = 9.332622x10^157. To put that number into perspective the number of particles (including subatomic particles) in the universe (all galaxies known) is postulated to be around 10^88. In theory it would take a Cray Super computer over 300 years to solve the 100 cities salesman problem.
How many variables does a weather forecasting model have? I don't know. How many variables does the global warming forecasting model have? I don't know and few others do because the Global Warming Gang will not tell us. Remember the weather forecasting model's accuracy falls off sharply after 24 hours. How can the Global Warming Gang forecast 50 years into the future? And because the data they make available for inspection is "enhanced" (normalized to fit their predictions) we cannot run it thru our models to test the veracity of their predictions.
Don't piss on my back and tell me it is raining.
I have a couple of problems with the Global Warming Gang and their data. First their models are proprietary and are not available for inspection. Second they will not let the scientific community look at their raw data. Only their "enhanced" data is available for viewing.
So let's look at computer modeling in general. Do you ever watch the weather channel? If you live in San Diego they are right pretty much most of the time because the weather doesn't vary much from day to day and they can easily track storms coming in from the Pacific. Here in the Midwest weather comes from four or five directions, often all at once. We get winds and rain from the West and the Northwest, arctic cold from the north and warm moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is why we have so many thunderstorms and tornados. But when we watch the weather channel here we know the forecast is really only valid for a day, maybe two. The first Saturday of October (2010) we were supposed to get a half inch of rain. We got six inches of snow. An interesting thing about the weather channel is from time to time they do not trust their computer model so they compare it with a European model. Now why are computer weather models so finicky? It's because of the complexity needed. There are tremendous amounts of variables involved.
First a little background. In mathematics there is a problem called the 100 cities salesman problem where you have to figure out the shortest route to cover 100 cities. Sounds simple, except it isn't. There are 100! (one hundred factorial) possible choices. 100! = 9.332622x10^157. To put that number into perspective the number of particles (including subatomic particles) in the universe (all galaxies known) is postulated to be around 10^88. In theory it would take a Cray Super computer over 300 years to solve the 100 cities salesman problem.
How many variables does a weather forecasting model have? I don't know. How many variables does the global warming forecasting model have? I don't know and few others do because the Global Warming Gang will not tell us. Remember the weather forecasting model's accuracy falls off sharply after 24 hours. How can the Global Warming Gang forecast 50 years into the future? And because the data they make available for inspection is "enhanced" (normalized to fit their predictions) we cannot run it thru our models to test the veracity of their predictions.
Don't piss on my back and tell me it is raining.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Happy February 35th!
"Thirty days hath September, all the rest I can't remember" says the jokester about the rhyme to remember how many days each month has. They tried to teach us the rhyme "thirty days hath September, April, June and November" in grade school. I prefer the knuckle method where you start on your index finger's knuckle as Jan with 31 days then the first 'valley' is February with 28 or 29, then the next knuckle is March with 31 (see a pattern developing here?) So all knuckles are 31 days and all valleys are 30 days except that pesky February. When you get to your Pinky knuckle for July you don't turn around, rather you jump back to the index knuckle for August which has 31 days also. What? How come 2 months in a row have 31 days you ask? Well accounts differ but I'll give you my take on the whys and wherefores.
• January: 31 days. Most likely named after Janus, Roman god of doors, beginnings, sunset and sunrise, had one face looking forward and one backward.
• February: 28 or 29 days. On February 15 the Romans celebrated the festival of forgiveness for sins; (februare, Latin to purify).
• March: 31 days. Named after Mars, the Roman god of war, the original first month in the Roman calendar. It was the first month of warfare because no one fought in the winter.
• April: 30 days. From the Roman month Aprilis, perhaps derived from aperire, (Latin to open, as in opening buds and blossoms) or perhaps from Aphrodite, original Greek name of Venus.
• May: 31 days. Pehaps named after Maia, Roman goddess, mother of Mercury by Jupiter and daughter of Atlas.
• June: 30 days. Named after Juno, chief Roman goddess of email.
• July: 31 days. Renamed for Julius Caesar in 44 BC, who was born this month; Quintilis, Latin for fifth month, was the former name (the Roman year began in March rather than January).
• August: 31 days! Formerly Sextilis (sixth month in the Roman calendar); re-named in 8 BC for Augustus Caesar. Both July and August were named after Caesars so one could not have more days than the other, hence two 31 day months in a row.
• September: 30 days hath. September, (septem, Latin for 7) the seventh month in the Julian or Roman calendar, established in the reign of Julius Caesar.
• October: 31 days. Eighth month (octo, Latin for 8) in the Julian (Roman) calendar. The Gregorian calendar instituted by Pope Gregory XIII established January as the first month of the year.
• November: 30 days. Ninth Roman month (novem, Latin for 9). Catholic countries adopted the Gregorian calendar in 1582, skipping 10 days that October, correcting for too many leap years. (Please take into account those 10 days when attempting to calculate the Biblical apocalypse or any other prophesied event such as the return of the Christ.)
• December: 31 days. Julian (Roman) year's tenth month (decem, Latin for 10).
So why is February the only month with 28 days? Well technically they all have 28 days but February seems to be the victim of Roman calendar tinkering. Before adopting an Egyptian style calendar based upon the solar year the pagan origins of the Roman calendar were based upon the lunar cycle. Recall that February was at the end of the Roman year which started in March so February fell victim of all shorts of adjustments to attempt to synchronize the calendar to the actual solar year. It had as many as 35 days depending on the needs to keep in step with the solar year. When Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 B.C. (B.C.E for our politically correct numbskull friends) they renamed the 5th month in his honor and gave it 31 days. Later they renamed the 6th month for Augusus Caesar and gave it 31 days. They purloined these days from the caboose of the train, February.
FAIR PLAY FOR FEBRUARY!
It's time to address historical wrongs. Let's give poor February it's just due. I propose that all months have 30 days except February which is to have 35 days (36 on leap year). Think of these 5 days as reparations to February. Our only other alternative is to slow down the earth's orbit around the Sun by 5 days. Try to get THAT through Congress.
"Thirty days hath September and all the rest I remember except February which now has 35!"
• January: 31 days. Most likely named after Janus, Roman god of doors, beginnings, sunset and sunrise, had one face looking forward and one backward.
• February: 28 or 29 days. On February 15 the Romans celebrated the festival of forgiveness for sins; (februare, Latin to purify).
• March: 31 days. Named after Mars, the Roman god of war, the original first month in the Roman calendar. It was the first month of warfare because no one fought in the winter.
• April: 30 days. From the Roman month Aprilis, perhaps derived from aperire, (Latin to open, as in opening buds and blossoms) or perhaps from Aphrodite, original Greek name of Venus.
• May: 31 days. Pehaps named after Maia, Roman goddess, mother of Mercury by Jupiter and daughter of Atlas.
• June: 30 days. Named after Juno, chief Roman goddess of email.
• July: 31 days. Renamed for Julius Caesar in 44 BC, who was born this month; Quintilis, Latin for fifth month, was the former name (the Roman year began in March rather than January).
• August: 31 days! Formerly Sextilis (sixth month in the Roman calendar); re-named in 8 BC for Augustus Caesar. Both July and August were named after Caesars so one could not have more days than the other, hence two 31 day months in a row.
• September: 30 days hath. September, (septem, Latin for 7) the seventh month in the Julian or Roman calendar, established in the reign of Julius Caesar.
• October: 31 days. Eighth month (octo, Latin for 8) in the Julian (Roman) calendar. The Gregorian calendar instituted by Pope Gregory XIII established January as the first month of the year.
• November: 30 days. Ninth Roman month (novem, Latin for 9). Catholic countries adopted the Gregorian calendar in 1582, skipping 10 days that October, correcting for too many leap years. (Please take into account those 10 days when attempting to calculate the Biblical apocalypse or any other prophesied event such as the return of the Christ.)
• December: 31 days. Julian (Roman) year's tenth month (decem, Latin for 10).
So why is February the only month with 28 days? Well technically they all have 28 days but February seems to be the victim of Roman calendar tinkering. Before adopting an Egyptian style calendar based upon the solar year the pagan origins of the Roman calendar were based upon the lunar cycle. Recall that February was at the end of the Roman year which started in March so February fell victim of all shorts of adjustments to attempt to synchronize the calendar to the actual solar year. It had as many as 35 days depending on the needs to keep in step with the solar year. When Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 B.C. (B.C.E for our politically correct numbskull friends) they renamed the 5th month in his honor and gave it 31 days. Later they renamed the 6th month for Augusus Caesar and gave it 31 days. They purloined these days from the caboose of the train, February.
FAIR PLAY FOR FEBRUARY!
It's time to address historical wrongs. Let's give poor February it's just due. I propose that all months have 30 days except February which is to have 35 days (36 on leap year). Think of these 5 days as reparations to February. Our only other alternative is to slow down the earth's orbit around the Sun by 5 days. Try to get THAT through Congress.
"Thirty days hath September and all the rest I remember except February which now has 35!"
Friday, November 13, 2009
The Reward
A young boy taken to Church by his loving parents, sits in the pews and listens to the minister preach the Gospel of the Lord Jesus. And the minister embellishes the story a bit by describing a scene of a beautiful garden where the Lord will walk with the true believers for eternity. "Imagine walking hand in hand with our Lord Jesus in paradise forever" intoned the minister. As the young boy grew into manhood he never forgot the image of walking hand in hand with the Lord in that incredibly beautiful garden. He lived his life, took a wife and fathered a son which he later took to the same church so his son could hear the "good news". Being a father he liked to imagine his son also walking hand in hand with the Lord Jesus in the paradise garden. In the autumn of his life the man, now a grandfather, began to unceasingly ponder the image of walking in the garden with Jesus. The image became so real that he came to accept it as his fate and as his reward. Years later as he lay dying in his hospital bed all he could think about was walking in the garden with his beloved Lord. And then he died.
"Lord."
"Yes my child?"
"We have been walking in this wonderful garden for 10,000 years."
"Yes my child, 10,000 wonderful years."
"I need to know something Lord."
"What is it my child?"
"Is this all there is?"
"No my child, there is much, much more. This is all you wanted."
"Lord."
"Yes my child?"
"We have been walking in this wonderful garden for 10,000 years."
"Yes my child, 10,000 wonderful years."
"I need to know something Lord."
"What is it my child?"
"Is this all there is?"
"No my child, there is much, much more. This is all you wanted."
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Global Warming - Part 1
My friend Julie asked me what I thought about Global Warming. Her new boyfriend is very conservative and thinks the global warming debate is a scare by the Obama administration to shut down business. (Yes I realize the global warming controversy is much older than the Obama administration.) My Friend Mark, an attorney in the greater Los Angeles metroplex told me once that "the time for debate is over, we must take drastic action to avoid the coming ecological catastrophe." Most of us fall somewhere in between these 2 extremes.
My answer to Julie was basically in 2 parts. First I like to ask if global warming is man caused, what is causing global warming on Mars? Mark's answer to this was "oh, you found a red herring" and dismissed my question. Julie seemed to accept that the cause of global warming is not so clear. Second I told Julie whereas I am not a stupid person I just can't seem to get my head wrapped around the problem. There are too many variables. The famous Hockey Stick chart of warming trends doesn't seem to stand up to rigorous statistical analysis. The claim that Ice is thinner today than any other time in history lacks credibility because of how the data is collected. It is easy to take temperatures readings globally today using satellites but satellites have only be around since the late 1960's. Does ice core samples give an accurate temperature reading for a specific date? I don't know. Do you? Yet ice thickness and global temperatures are based on these measurements.
Global Warming studies use a lot of disciplines. Statistics, Meteorology, Climatology, Geography, Computer Science, Physics, Economics, Astronomy, not to mention Political Science and Psychology. I have training in Economics and Computer Science and understand enough of the Global Warming arguments in those areas to form an opinion. As to the other areas, I'm pretty clueless. Are you up to speed on these disciplines?
My friend Robert said the other day "it's a 50-50 proposition. Either there is a coming global catastrophe or there isn't so we better act as if there is and start trying to reverse it. This is kind of a variation on Pascal's argument for the existence of God. It is specious and doesn't prove anything but rather is designed to appeal to the emotions. (Both Robert's 50-50 argument and Pascal's wager.) But that seems to be the central theme of the Global Warming debate. Get as many people on you side as you can and build your power base. And once you have the power you can make changes to US policy to mitigate the effects of dumping so much "green house gases" into the atmosphere. Physicist and Meteorologist Craig Bohren, distinguished professor emeritus at the Pennsylvania State University, said "Whatever the US and Europe do to mitigate consumption is likely to be negated by increased consumption in countries such as China, India, and Brazil." http://www.usatodayom/tech/colum.cnist/aprilholladay/2006-08-07-global-warming-truth_x.htm
My point is this. I don't get it. And I don't see a clear path to determining the truth about Global Warming. But I can see a huge potential for abuse here. Hidden agendas being served, political power being fueled, and the usual blatant manipulation of the public.
My answer to Julie was basically in 2 parts. First I like to ask if global warming is man caused, what is causing global warming on Mars? Mark's answer to this was "oh, you found a red herring" and dismissed my question. Julie seemed to accept that the cause of global warming is not so clear. Second I told Julie whereas I am not a stupid person I just can't seem to get my head wrapped around the problem. There are too many variables. The famous Hockey Stick chart of warming trends doesn't seem to stand up to rigorous statistical analysis. The claim that Ice is thinner today than any other time in history lacks credibility because of how the data is collected. It is easy to take temperatures readings globally today using satellites but satellites have only be around since the late 1960's. Does ice core samples give an accurate temperature reading for a specific date? I don't know. Do you? Yet ice thickness and global temperatures are based on these measurements.
Global Warming studies use a lot of disciplines. Statistics, Meteorology, Climatology, Geography, Computer Science, Physics, Economics, Astronomy, not to mention Political Science and Psychology. I have training in Economics and Computer Science and understand enough of the Global Warming arguments in those areas to form an opinion. As to the other areas, I'm pretty clueless. Are you up to speed on these disciplines?
My friend Robert said the other day "it's a 50-50 proposition. Either there is a coming global catastrophe or there isn't so we better act as if there is and start trying to reverse it. This is kind of a variation on Pascal's argument for the existence of God. It is specious and doesn't prove anything but rather is designed to appeal to the emotions. (Both Robert's 50-50 argument and Pascal's wager.) But that seems to be the central theme of the Global Warming debate. Get as many people on you side as you can and build your power base. And once you have the power you can make changes to US policy to mitigate the effects of dumping so much "green house gases" into the atmosphere. Physicist and Meteorologist Craig Bohren, distinguished professor emeritus at the Pennsylvania State University, said "Whatever the US and Europe do to mitigate consumption is likely to be negated by increased consumption in countries such as China, India, and Brazil." http://www.usatodayom/tech/colum.cnist/aprilholladay/2006-08-07-global-warming-truth_x.htm
My point is this. I don't get it. And I don't see a clear path to determining the truth about Global Warming. But I can see a huge potential for abuse here. Hidden agendas being served, political power being fueled, and the usual blatant manipulation of the public.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Forgiveness
Let's talk about forgiveness.
I remember a few years ago when somebody in Georgia was murdering children was finally apprehended by the authorities. A Christian minister went on television proclaiming that "we must forgive this murderer". He went on to explain that it was our Christian duty to forgive. (And people wonder why I am not a Christian.) Well the whole incident really stuck in my craw. I, for the life of me, could not come up with a reason to forgive the killer. And more importantly the killer did not ask for forgiveness. So the incident was a catalyst for me to investigate forgiveness.
Most reasons given for forgiveness are selfish. That is to say we forgive so we may continue to grow and prosper in this life. i.e.. I forgive you so I don't get stuck in a negative mindset of hatred and/or bitterness. But what do you get out of this forgiveness? Especially if forgiveness is given freely and without conditions. How do you benefit? The answer is you don't. At least as far as I can tell.
My understanding of forgiveness in Judaism is there are 4 elements that must be met to grant forgiveness. I call them the 4 Rs and they go something like this: Remorse, Repent, Repay, Repair. A few years ago Doug Rand of the Santa Cruz Center for Nonviolence got into a heated argument with his neighbor and threw a stone through the guys window. (Delicious irony.) According to the 4 Rs Doug first needed to show that he was sorry (remorse), then ask forgiveness (repent), then fix the window (repay), then take an anger management class (repair). The last is to show true remorse and taking steps to avoid those kinds of incidents in the future.
Now compare and contrast Christian doctrine of forgiveness from God and Jewish doctrine. Christians maintain that if a person asks for forgiveness then forgiveness must be given. Unconditionally. No so in Judaism. Which method do you think a god would prefer? And this touches on one of the reasons I think Christianity is a scam. Free forgiveness... you get what you pay for.
Finally I'd like to add that, although I am not a Jew, I practice the 4 Rs method in my life. If you commit some offense against me don't expect forgiveness from me to be de rigeuer. You need to go through the steps, and conversely I will go through them if I commit an offense against you and want forgiveness. (Read those last 3 words again.)
I remember a few years ago when somebody in Georgia was murdering children was finally apprehended by the authorities. A Christian minister went on television proclaiming that "we must forgive this murderer". He went on to explain that it was our Christian duty to forgive. (And people wonder why I am not a Christian.) Well the whole incident really stuck in my craw. I, for the life of me, could not come up with a reason to forgive the killer. And more importantly the killer did not ask for forgiveness. So the incident was a catalyst for me to investigate forgiveness.
Most reasons given for forgiveness are selfish. That is to say we forgive so we may continue to grow and prosper in this life. i.e.. I forgive you so I don't get stuck in a negative mindset of hatred and/or bitterness. But what do you get out of this forgiveness? Especially if forgiveness is given freely and without conditions. How do you benefit? The answer is you don't. At least as far as I can tell.
My understanding of forgiveness in Judaism is there are 4 elements that must be met to grant forgiveness. I call them the 4 Rs and they go something like this: Remorse, Repent, Repay, Repair. A few years ago Doug Rand of the Santa Cruz Center for Nonviolence got into a heated argument with his neighbor and threw a stone through the guys window. (Delicious irony.) According to the 4 Rs Doug first needed to show that he was sorry (remorse), then ask forgiveness (repent), then fix the window (repay), then take an anger management class (repair). The last is to show true remorse and taking steps to avoid those kinds of incidents in the future.
Now compare and contrast Christian doctrine of forgiveness from God and Jewish doctrine. Christians maintain that if a person asks for forgiveness then forgiveness must be given. Unconditionally. No so in Judaism. Which method do you think a god would prefer? And this touches on one of the reasons I think Christianity is a scam. Free forgiveness... you get what you pay for.
Finally I'd like to add that, although I am not a Jew, I practice the 4 Rs method in my life. If you commit some offense against me don't expect forgiveness from me to be de rigeuer. You need to go through the steps, and conversely I will go through them if I commit an offense against you and want forgiveness. (Read those last 3 words again.)
Thursday, October 22, 2009
God's love
As you probably figured out by now I feel the same way about the Christian Church as I feel about water-boarding. Not a warm and fuzzy kind of feeling, more like a scream in the dark kind of feeling. My wife has a work friend who expressed wonderment that she (my wife) has no membership in a formal religion and yet is involved in the community to the extent that she volunteered at the Community of Christ thrift store. "Well I like what they are doing for the community and I can get past their theology." explained my wife. Now this friend of hers is going through a minor crisis of faith. Her church (and I don't know which particular Christian sect) is in the process of hiring a new pastor and most people agreed that a certain woman was the perfect candidate... until they found that person had a female partner... or as I would say 'her boat sailed a little too close to the Isle of Lesbos.' So they dumped the candidate, presumably in the name of God's love. Hurray for tolerance and love!
So I have 2 points to make here. First, you don't need to call yourself a Christian to help people. In fact I find that most Christians are self-centered in that they are interested in going to heaven and having everyone else go to hell. And that taints their service to their fellow human beings. It has been my experience that there are a lot of opportunities to help people. And sacrifice without the expectation of return is part of my definition of loving thy neighbor. Second, if you are claiming that your church is representational of God here on earth you had best be sure that your house is clean before you start condemning other people's houses. As an aside, most Christians will tell you that saying 'God damn' is taking the Lord's name in vain, a violation of the third commandment. My understanding of Judaism is that taking the Lord's name in vain is not cursing using the word God, rather it is saying things like 'God is on our side' as a justification of actions. I think the aforementioned Church is guilty of taking the Lord's name in vain when they rejected the lesbian pastor. I think that God would rather his/her/its church be inclusive rather than exclusive.
So I have 2 points to make here. First, you don't need to call yourself a Christian to help people. In fact I find that most Christians are self-centered in that they are interested in going to heaven and having everyone else go to hell. And that taints their service to their fellow human beings. It has been my experience that there are a lot of opportunities to help people. And sacrifice without the expectation of return is part of my definition of loving thy neighbor. Second, if you are claiming that your church is representational of God here on earth you had best be sure that your house is clean before you start condemning other people's houses. As an aside, most Christians will tell you that saying 'God damn' is taking the Lord's name in vain, a violation of the third commandment. My understanding of Judaism is that taking the Lord's name in vain is not cursing using the word God, rather it is saying things like 'God is on our side' as a justification of actions. I think the aforementioned Church is guilty of taking the Lord's name in vain when they rejected the lesbian pastor. I think that God would rather his/her/its church be inclusive rather than exclusive.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
